Managing the Unprecedented: FAFSA's impact on college decisions

It would be difficult to come up with a word that has gotten as much play over the past 5 years as “unprecedented.” Typically, the adjective’s presence would not inherently serve as an indication of a bad thing, however the turbulence of our world of late has far too often found us looking at headlines and reading articles regarding things that can only be described as - well - “unprecedented.” Pandemics, economics, political strife, years of our favorite teams missing the playoffs, etc. have left many of us yearning for some stability or predictability, and the mere utterance of the word “unprecedented” evokes a cringe. If you are looking for said predictability, however, college admissions in 2024 is not where it will be found.

Record application numbers, new buzzwords, and trendy extracurricular activities are nothing new when it comes to college admissions, and most colleges and universities have developed predictive models that have allowed them to accurately predict what percentage of admitted students would choose to attend (yield) on a year-to-year basis. Having a target yield rate is what allows a university to predict housing needs, ensure that they have adequate student services, and to meet budget. For most families, the financial aid package is one of the most important factors in deciding whether or not their child can or will attend a specific school, so financial aid offices have traditionally worked hard to get these packages in the hands of families by late March so that students can make an informed commitment to a single college by May 1 of their senior year. Slight increases or decreases in yield rates occur each year but, for the most part, seasoned enrollment managers have traditionally been able to hit their enrollment targets within a reasonable margin of error. There was predictability.

Enter the 2023-24 college admissions cycle. Supreme Court decisions shake up admissions practices, standardized testing policies are changing at a rate that can’t help but cause confusion, and (above all) the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) goes under a much needed overhaul. If you have ever filled out a FAFSA form, either for yourself or for an older child, you know that it could be a cumbersome and sometimes confusing task. The new FAFSA is a much simpler form for families to complete, asking for less information and having clear and simple language to minimize confusion. Problems arose, however, in early fall when the Department of Education had to delay the roll-out due to issues with the website. The website’s availability continued to be delayed through the end of 2023, and into early 2024 when many students had already begun to receive early admissions decisions. In a typical year, some students begin to deposit to colleges as early as November, locking in their place at a chosen school and allowing them to notify other colleges that they will not be attending. This year, however, the absence of financial aid packages have slowed student decisions to a crawl, and many colleges have no idea how many of the students that they have offered spaces to will take them up on their offers. So what does that mean for all the students that were still waiting on admissions decisions? Many have found themselves on waitlists while the colleges begin to get a better sense of how much space is available.

Over the past few weeks, financial aid packages have slowly but steadily been arriving in student inboxes, allowing families to finally start making informed decisions and submit deposits. That said, the typical timeline that we are accustomed to is now off by at least a month. May 1 used to be college decision day, where most students had committed and deposited to the one school that they will attend in the fall. And while some colleges have maintained the May 1 enrollment deadline, a large portion of them have moved the deposit date back to May 15 or even June 1 in order to give families more time to make their decisions. The byproduct of this, however, is that the waitlist process will likely slide well into summer.

It’s frustrating.

It’s unprecedented.

It’s also out of anyone’s control.

So what do we do about it? Seniors, continue to work with your college counselor if you are pursuing a waitlist offer, and make sure that you are following the appropriate steps. Many college reps we have spoken to have shared that they hope to go to the waitlist later this spring - but that they don't know what they don’t know. It’s unpr… well… you know.

For underclassmen, this just underscores a few points that the College Counseling Office has always made:

Be the best version of yourself.

Try new things and try your best.

Keep an open mind.

Utilize your resources.

Your college counselors are here to help you. Ms. Thomas is an invaluable resource for freshmen and sophomores when it comes to discussing classes, summer opportunities, and learning more about different academic and career paths. Juniors, you should be following up with your assigned college counselor often to discuss your college research list, how to maximize your college visits, and to make sure that you are on your way to a balanced application list.

At the end of the day, nobody can guarantee outcomes or promise a 100% acceptance rate. Again, this is out of anyone’s control. But what we can do is inform you about the amazing range of opportunities that are out there, prepare your resume and credentials to best represent you in this process, and walk side by side with your family each step of the way.

The only guarantee is that “unprecedented” will happen again. If not, that would be unprecedented.

Josh Greenwald

Director of College Counseling